Summer Portfolio 2016: Third Edition
Summer Portfolio 2016: Third Edition
Hi, Real Life Traders! How are you doing? Summer is winding down and one of my favorite seasons is upon us. I really do love the fall season for numerous reasons. I also love the summer.
The fall though, in the stock market, can be a special time indeed. I think the below stocks and trade set-ups will intrigue you and most importantly help to enrich lives. Keep a close eye out very soon for the new Real Life Trading Fall portfolio with a new set of stocks. For now, we will circle back to these five that we have been tracking, trading and profiting from.
SQ: Analysis on September 17th, 2016
Alright! Square Inc. has actually been pretty fun to trade and track. I brought this stock to many traders' attention recently and received a lot of kindly worded and profitable emails from various traders around the globe.
We have seen SQ bounce off of the $9.00 support that we have been looking at for over two months. Many traders did $9 put sales, which did expire worthless. A few others were quite surprised and happy when they held some SQ shares over earnings and were presented with a healthy gap up.
Some other real life traders were able to squeak out a small gain from this set up. It does appear, at least to me, that SQ is still sitting right in the middle of a nice rectangle (aka - stock channel). The $9 is a support and the $14 being the resistance. There is very little money in selling puts, therefore one could either hold (if they still own shares or longer term calls), or if they are not in, look to potentially hop into the below trade.
As it stands, SQ is bouncing off of the newly formed 200 simple moving average and the 50 exponential. Let's see where SQ goes from here, but it seems to me this payment processing company has a lot of upward potential.
SQ price from the first article: Up $2.10 [22.6%]
2. GOOGL: Analysis on September 17th, 2016
Well, GOOGL has slowed down a bit after earnings. The $760 / $755 September bull put spread I mentioned in the last article would have worked fine, along with the bear call spread idea. Agreed that the premiums weren't perfect, but what I notice right now on GOOGL is that the earnings gap is still providing majestic support.
With earnings coming up in late October, I do not expect a sensationally big move. If GOOGL does gap up or break the $820 level, this thing will be a rocket ship. Until then, I'll continue to view the $780 to be a specifically decent support. A good one to watch for day trading or short term swings, perhaps some additional put sales or bull put spreads.
IF you are thinking 'GOOGL looks to have a small, mini channel right now between $785 and $810, I would have to agree with you. Keep an eye for that to break and play the direction of the break.
GOOGL price from the first article: Up $87.72 [12.3%]
3. AAPL: Analysis on September 17th, 2016
I'm bullish on AAPL (still). Do I need to say anything else? Can I just stop here? Ha ha! Okay, I'll continue with a bit more Intel, but really - wow AAPL!
My last analysis on AAPL was also short, sweet and to the point. Honestly, AAPL was the best swing trade I made in the entire year of 2016 (to date) and really, in my career thus far! Folks, this was HUGE!! In the last article, I mentioned buying the Sep 110 call options for $0.80. Just so happens, a few weeks ago they were trading for well over 400% more than $0.80. If by some miracle you held them until the day of expiration (like of one of my buddies) they increased about 600% in value. So yea, you likely did well on AAPL if you played it bullish after it's powerful earnings gap. Because of this trade, I've already bought and paid for two tickets to Aruba! I'm going in February of 2017. I've never been before and I am totally amped!
Ron, Stan, Niels, Garrison, Ray and many other traders did well on put sales on AAPL. Shaun, Blake, Matt, Stephen, myself and countless others wrecked the shares or call options. And I know I'm leaving out thousands of traders. Either way, team, WELL DONE! Seriously. Huge props to one of the most amazing trades in my career!!
Phew. Okay, what now? I think AAPL is currently in a smaller wave five and also a much longer term wave five. If you want that wave count, just email me and I'll send it to you.
Regardless, I'm anticipating a small pull back on AAPL over the next one to two weeks likely, but overall I don't have anything but bullish trades on my radar for AAPL. This stock could be in the $150 range in the next 12 months. Tons of traders were calling for the end of AAPL back in May when it was about $93. We weren't though. This video, around the minute three mark, shows our bullish perspective on AAPL back at that price (as a longer term play).
Alright, I'll get off my pedestal. What's the trade? In my opinion, just be bullish after some pullbacks. An October $120 covered call pays pretty good premium if you have shares and don't mind getting exercised. I could easily see a $130 AAPL stock price before 2017. Anyway, that's the best I got right now. Let me know if you need anything else specific.
AAPL price from the first article: Up $18.03 [18.6%]
4. MRO: Analysis on September 17th, 2016
You know, MRO has been tricking me a lot lately. I think it's a good buy long term, but short term the entries have been a bit bamboozling. Back on the 14th of this month, during Energy Wednesday , there seemed to be a lot of warning signals for sure. Ended up getting into a bear call spread on COP and a bull put spread on XLE. Which is kind of like an iron condor on energies in a way.
I know my good buddy Dean has shares of MRO and sold another covered call, which expired worthless this Friday. I can see a clear double top on MRO. It's almost so good I don't expect it to work. Is that weird? Well, if MRO starts making lower lows, I'll be convinced that it really could trade back down to at least the strong support of $12 minimum.
The intermediate trend is still making higher highs and higher lows, though. 'Twill be interesting to see exactly what transpires on MRO. If MRO share price does make it back down to $12 I'll be looking to buy that dip. Otherwise, play this bracket trade accordingly.
MRO price from the first article: Down $1.44 [9.18%]
5. NKE: Analysis on September 17th, 2016
Yawn. Thanks NKE. Wow. This stocks movement is not intriguing at all right now. It's like NKE has lost its sole. I can still see a large triangle in the primary trend, though, potentially a giant wave four. Therefore, my analysis is NKE has been in a distribution phase since September of last year. We can see a nice lower high on a longer-term level and some solid support on NKE around $50 and $55 on NKE. The only real play I see is looking to buy low and sell high on a longer-term level.
One could sell the $50 October put sale for $0.30 cents. This is a similar strategy to what we've looked at on NKE for the last two articles. It's bullish long term, but intermediately, NKE is just neutral to bearish with a slight tint of bullishness.
The blue line on this weekly chart is the 100 simple moving average. NKE has slightly bounced off of that before and potentially could do it again. It will be a waiting game for us investors from here on NKE.
NKE price from the first article: Down $0.43 [0.7%]
Just as a reminder, the stocks in this portfolio aren't just 'blind buy signals'. Here at Real Life Trading we are picking five solid, disciplined, well known stocks, companies and / or ETF's to follow over a three-month period. Sometimes we will play them bullish, sometimes we will be bearish or perhaps I'll show off my option trading skills. We are always here to provide assistance, help in any way, educate, entertain and of course, enrich! It just so happens, this particular portfolio and selection of stocks and trades could have returned 43.6% ROI - just from the stocks itself.
I'm saying that to outline this - as traders we do not need to scour the earth and read through boundless news stories, articles and blogs to find value. These five companies or stocks, likely we have all heard of before. They are plenty of opportunities out there, my friends! Our main goal is to be patient and disciplined regardless of what stocks or strategies we are following.
Thank you so much for reading! I really appreciate your support. If you ever have any questions about trading, or deem there is anyway I can assist, please let me know! My email is firstname.lastname@example.org Chat with you soon! Until next time, remember, love life, live life and trade it!
Jerremy Alexander Newsome
CEO of Real Life Trading