Summer Portfolio 2015 Second Edition
Real Life Trading Summer Portfolio 2015: Second Edition
*Said in a very posh British accent* 'Why hello there, traders? How are you today?â€
*Back to normal* I hope your summer has been going amazing. The weather here in Nashville is beautiful, there are countless activities to get involved in, the market is moving nicely, just tons of things to be grateful about.
In just a few days, August will be here, which is Volunteer Month at Real Life Trading. Really, a perfect time for this because it's going to be great to give back. With over 20R's currently locked in for The Morning Trading Floor, it feels better to give than to receive, and we will have a lot to give!
Coming back full circle with our 5 Summer stocks in our portfolio.
Stock #1 NQ - Analysis on 7/24/15
Well, it's safe to say that since my first article, NQ has been taken to the woodshed. The good news is, it is at a support. Remember, I mentioned my stop was at $3.00, which is below the support line. NQ is in a channel. If you aren't in, you could definitely watch for some buy signals off of this support.
If you are in, let's just hang tight and be willing to lose our R if we are wrong. At this point, with my shares, I did get into the $5.00 August covered call. I believe earnings are on 8/12 - so my current plan is to wait until then and buy some protective puts just in case of a big gap down and IF NQ gaps down and opens below our strong support, I will buy more puts, exit my long and maybe even short NQ.
On 7/7/15 I did buy some puts as it was a nice bearish gap down. This has offset my losses some.
Just waiting on the bounce and I hope earnings is strong on NQ.
NQ price from the first article: Down $1.89 [33%]
Stock #2 SHAK - Analysis on 7/24/15
Still haven't eaten at this place and I'm not even sure if it's a good place to eat or not. As I mentioned in my last article, I was very upset that I couldn't short this with shares. It looked so good to me. Well, SHAK did finally make its way to support. I was watching and tracking this thing with a vengeance!
Finally, about 1 week ago, there appeared to be a set up, so we went with this analysis.
My bullish trigger was a close above $54.52 with a stop at $47.79. My first target is the 100 SMA, which coincidentally is at the 50 EMA also, at $61.39. At this price I'll look to exit 1/4 of my position and move the stop up some. Bottom line, if you aren't in this, if it pulls back to $54.62, one could get in where I did. Dean C. had an awesome limit fill the morning of 7/21 and got in at $53, I think. Either way, I'll be out of SHAK before earnings on 8/12. I'm expecting some wild earnings and huge candles. Probably bullish after it's third earnings report. Here's my current chart on it.
SHAK price from the first article: Down $12.79 [18.4%]
Stock #3 ETSY - Analysis on 7/24/15
What a shame on ETSY. Had it moved just a few points lower we could have crushed this thing. $11.52 was my limit buy and the lowest it got was $12.80. I guess that's fairly close, but then ETSY had a massive surge caused by a triple bottom on the hourly chart from back around 7/7/15. I know this because a Real Life Trader, Ufredo, pointed it out and traded it. He was in on that huge bullish candle on 7/17/15 and exited at $23 for 7R, I believe. It definitely pays to create a trading plan!
Now that ETSY has finally popped with some volume, which I anticipated it would do, I'm looking for a quick bullish trade. I can give you Ufredo's current plan. He bought in with a limit buy at $19.08, stop at $17.98 and target at $21.28.
Here's my trading plan.
Entry with a move higher after this nice morning star pattern, at $19.98. Stop at $17.60 and target at $24.74. I likely might take off 1/4 of my position, or move my stop up a hair if ETSY reaches $23 (the top of that big white candle). This new IPO looks ready to move. Does anybody reading this have an ETSY account? I would love to look at your products if you do! Here's my chart.
ETSY price from the first article: Up $4.99 [34.8%]
Stock #4 AAPL - Analysis on 7/24/15
Well, here's all I will say about AAPL. Sideways…Earnings were pretty great and AAPL is hoarding even more billions of cash, but the stock still dropped some. It immediately found good buying support and on that day we got into a 122/121 weekly bull put spread for $0.08.
As of right now, here's a drawing of the two things I think AAPL could do.
The second path, the one in blue, is the one I expect the most. Therefore, let's create a plan for if AAPL bounces off that support again. We could either:
A) Buy Sep or October call optionsB) Buy sharesC) Sell putsD) Do a bull put spreadE) All of the above
I'll let you decide which is best, but any of the strategies would work ok. Another choice is:
F) Go ahead and get into a longer term bull put spread now. An August week 4 118/117 for $0.15 limit looks very doable. It's a long time to wait for sure, but the $119 support along with the 200 SMA should prop up AAPL and keep it above $118 before the fourth Friday in August.
Speaking of spreads, our AAPL Iron Condor from the last article did expire worthless.
AAPL PRICE FROM THE FIRST ARTICLE: DOWN $2.1 [1.6%]
Stock #5 AMZN - Analysis on 7/24/15
Wow, what an incredible gap on earnings AMZN had! Many analysts expected it to report a loss of $0.14 cents per share, but when AMZN reported a gain of $0.19 cents per share for the third quarter this stock went wild. The interesting thing is I, along with many others, had a really good inclination AMZN would do a lot of selling since it was already so bought up before earnings. I just didn't think this much selling would come in. It lost 50 points, right at 10%, in one day. Since the 7/23/15 candle was bearish and the stock was gapping up, I had a slight bullish inclination during the day. I never got a chance to trade it until tiptoeing in bearish on a day trade towards the end of the day.
Either way, my next objective on AMZN is to find where it bounces. I made the statement that this AMZN candle and gap remind of me the NFLX candle and gap back in October 2013. Therefore, I expect a bounce at some point. I'll be watching the 10, 20 and 50 exponential moving averages on the daily for a bounce. I also might take a stab on the hourly EMAs as well. I will be pretty patient on a directional trade (call buying) but I'll be watching very closely to implement another bull put spread.
Speaking of spreads, our last one on AMZN expired perfectly.
For AMZN, I'll be keeping a close eye on the 475/470 August bull put spread, or if AMZN bounces nicely soon, I'll do the 500/495. One could also consider put sales. This should be fun!
AMZN price from the first article: Up $95.58 [21.9%]
Traders, I am super excited about the future of Real Life Trading. We have one more Summer Portfolio update and then we all should look forward to the Fall Portfolio and then the Winter Portfolio. Keep coming back to reallifetrading.com for the write-ups and if you ever have any questions, feel free to contact me anytime at firstname.lastname@example.org
Love life, live life and trade it!