Spring Portfolio 2015 3rd Edition
Spring portfolio 2015 3rd Edition
Hey world! I hope you are doing fantastic! I just wanted to send some more stock market awesomeness your way, with an update of our Spring Portfolio. I am going to give you some of my future projections and discuss what to expect. Then, I will begin our Summer 2015 portfolio in the 3rd week of June. There will be some new stocks, new analysis, new set-ups, and hopefully new returns. Plus a little bonus on the side!
I hope you had a good Memorial Day weekend. I was on a cruise with five other amazing Real Life Traders. We had a blast! There was a stock that many people asked me about on this ship. What stock is that? AAPL of course!
Stock #1 AAPL Analysis on 6/5//15:
A few things to report. On AAPL we've really just been looking at spreads. Here was some analysis I did a few days back.
So far, from the last report, ' If you did decide you like an iron condor right now, a 140/145 -120/115 June iron condor is paying about $0.35 cents, which is 7% return on a $5.00 margin. I give this a 93% chance of expiring worthless by June 19th, 2015.â€There are only two weeks left on this condor. Pretty much any bear call spreads are likely going to expire worthless too.
At this point, I'm waiting on AAPL to bounce off the 100 simple moving average and/or the 200 simple moving average. At that point, put sales, bull put spreads, buy some shares, calls - however you want to play it bullish sounds good to me. AAPL obviously appears to be in an ascending triangle of some kind.
AAPL price from the first article: up $2.64 - 2.0%
Spoiler alert, AAPL will always be in the RLT portfolio. I trade it pretty much every day and I love the stock and options. I track this one well and I'm excited to see how it plays out.
Stock #2 SDRL Analysis on 6/5/15:
Oils on 6/5/15 were pretty volatile all across the board. Most gapped down slightly at the open and traded higher, ending with some white candles. Real Life Trader Jason Chase is in CVX calls at support and Dean Chance got put shares of MRO at a nice support and is expecting a bounce.
You can see the blue line (the 100 simple moving average) is still acting as a nice support. Per my last article, '
That blue line is my 100 simple moving average. That's going to prove to be a semi-healthy buying location as well. If SDLR has an uneventful earnings report, I could consider June or July $10 or $11 put sales to hopefully get put the stock at a cheap price and ride it up again!â€
The earnings really didn't do too much. If you're in some put sales, great! However, SDRL above $12.79 looks nice on all levels, Risk:Reward especially. The 200 simple moving average is definitely a healthy target, along with $18.25. Stop or protective put trigger at $10.80.
Keep in mind this is also in my sights for a longer-term position. How long? Three to five years. And at resistances or targets I'll sell some covered calls to lower my dollar cost average. $8.00 is a very strong long-term support for sure. SDRL could also be forming a cup and handle pattern, if you're familiar with that one.
SDRL price from the first article: Up $2.00 - approximately 20%
Stock #3 FEYE Analysis on 6/5/15:
Yep, this stock is officially going 'banana sandwich'. I know a few traders who are paying some serious bills off of this one.
I've got to give my boy Chris Irwin a shout out on this stock, too. We both did a lot of work on FEYE a few months back. That's why I put it in the portfolio. Here's his analysis. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FEYE/1JCwqTb3-FEYE-long/
Per my last article, 'I again don't have an exact numerical entry other than that one could consider put sales or just buying shares now. A trader could use that blue line (the 100 SMA) as a good stop. The $37 June put sales are only paying $0.25 of premium, which is okay.â€
What's the plan on FEYE right now? Well…we're massively profitable. This is a good time to take some profits! FEYE is at a resistance and close to some of my fib targets as well.
At this point, I'm still bullish on FEYE, but I would like a retest and bounce off of the daily 10, 20, 50 EMA's and then look for more bullishness. This is a break out of a triangle, which ranged from $28 - $46. That's $18 of price. Break out of this triangle was about $45. Therefore $45 + $18 = $63, which is a nice target as well!
FEYE price from the first article: Up $11.13 - 27.8%
Stock #4 FB Analysis on 6/5/15:
I am still bullish/neutral on FB. What's really unique is on 6/4 and 6/5 FB created a tweezer bottom candle pattern. Therefore if 6/8/15 makes a higher high at all I will remain bullish on FB. My ultimate target is really $100, although I have no clue when it will hit that price. It might take two to three years, but if you're in shares, holding and doing covered calls until you get exercised for a profit sounds swell!
On 6/3/15 FB did trigger our last analysis. 'If FB continues higher and closes above $82.04 I will still be slightly bullish, buying shares and selling covered calls and selling puts as it slowly continues higher.â€
A stop at $78.50 makes a lot of sense. That's $3.54 of risk. Therefore one could go ahead and sell the $87 covered call expiring July week 1 and bring in $0.31 per share or the July $90 covered call bringing in about $0.25 cents per share. Both likely will expire worthless.
Also, the $77 or $78 June puts sales for FB don't look too bad either. Could even consider some Julys around $76 and below.
FB price from fist article: Down $0.16 - .001%
Stock #5 TTWO Analysis on 6/5/15:
I called this stock 'American Pharaohâ€the other day in class because it looks like it can run! At this point, I'll just create the two longer-term targets on this stock. It could take four to five months to move higher for sure, but I would have a bullish edge on this going forward. The June $26 put sale looks even better after the 6/5/15 white candle. It appears 6/3 - 6/5 candles are forming a flag of some kind. Some higher highs would confirm the continued direction of TTWO into some resistance and future targets (hopefully).
TTWO price from first article: Up $3.05 - 12%
Total ROI if you simply bought the shares from the first publishing of the Spring Portfolio 2015 and sold as of the close of 6/5/2015 = 49.92%. Not bad for three weeks of work!