Real Life Trading Winter Portfolio 2017: Third Edition
Real Life Trading Winter Portfolio 2017: Third Edition
Well, hi there friends, family, fans, followers, investors, traders, and stock market enthusiasts from around the world. How are you on this glorious [insert your personal time frame of your choice depending on when you are reading this]?
Are you having a most marvelous and magnificent February? Is it winter or summer where you are in the world? I've been spending the last 2 weeks of the Tennessee winter, here on the island of Aruba. Ironically, it's not because I am trying to run away from the cold weather at all. I actually love the cold weather. I had just never been to Aruba, so I figured, why not?!
Above is just one quick picture, since I know you are not reading this to hear about my 'workcation'. You are here because you're excited about the markets! And why shouldn't you be?! This is probably the strongest bullish move over the last 3 months that I have ever traded through. If you have money in a financial advisor and they aren't just killing it, get a new one. And of course, if you're a rock star and you're managing the money yourself, great job. Just keep being patient and hopefully some of the tips, tricks, and analysis from this third edition will help you beef up your gains!
1. SPDR S&P 500 ETF: SPY - Analysis on 2/24/17
The reason of course, that I am mentioning the broader markets, is that in the FALL portfolio I decided to include the SPY. This is the ETF that tracks the S&P500. The SPY is one of the most liquid tools to trade on planet earth. And it's an amazing, boggling approach for longer term portfolios too.
If you pop back to the second edition, SPY hit the SPY target very nicely. Many of my friends and Real Life Traders had bull put spreads and put sales expire worthless and go to options heaven, which is splendid.
As mentioned previous also 'if you aren't already in something bullish, one could easily consider the 224 / 225 bull put spread expiring March week 1.â€ That spread is also looking glorious and I don't foresee any issue with it.
At this point on the SPY, the only thing I could suggest would be again some option selling of some kind. The SPY is still at all time highs. And unfortunately, premiums aren't incredible right now for option selling. If I personally had a large position in the SPY (400 shares or more) I would probably be looking to sell a June covered call up here. Why? Well, as you'll see in the chart below, SPY is approaching another target of mine. Plus the whole 'sell in May and go awayâ€ thing is quickly approaching.
My next shorter term target is $237.40 on the SPY. As wild as it sounds, I don't have any short term (1 week - 3 month) positions on SPY right now at these levels. Just remember, sell high, buy low. ;-)
SPY price from the first article: Up $12.34 [5.49%]
2. APPLE INC: AAPL - Analysis on 2/24/17
Oh AAPL. How incredible will you continue to be and for how long? You have all heard me say this a few times at this point. 'Who is buying up here?â€ Haha. I'm thinking the same thing with AAPL. I just can't talk myself into any short term trade (1 week - 3 month) positions on AAPL until it pulls back some more. I know many traders still in shares on AAPL long term. In fact, my analysis on AAPL in the 2nd edition was one of my most read passages ever! It's because I backed up what I said with charts and videos, showing that I've been bullish on AAPL for months now. My expected 2017 target is still $150 (which isn't that far away).
Until then, I'm just waiting for a pull back to retest it's all time highs before snagging something more short term, on the bullish side of course. I'm just waiting for something like this below:
In which case, that would appear like this on the daily:
Therefore, I would still like to wait a bit on AAPL before getting into anything bullish, but I would not recommend any bearish trades on this animal saying in your head, 'Oh, AAPL can't go that high.â€ Ha…okay…
So, if AAPL keeps trading sideways a bit, allowing the ema's to catch up as depicted above, put sales or bull put spreads might be the way to go, with some potential for covered call sales in the $145 region for April.
AAPL price from the first article: Up $19.90 [17.04%]
3. TESLA Motors: - Analysis on 2/24/17
Holy smokes TSLA. WOW town, this stock has gone wild. Honestly, the BEST way for me to sum up TSLA and what she might do, likely is in this video I made just yesterday. This is a clip from Transportation Thursday.
And, the only people who will see that exact snippet, will be the people who've taken their time to read this! You smart folks, you!
The only other way to capture my recent thoughts on TSLA is this idea and the chart below. Other than that, I think the video sums it up perfectly. I'll be looking for it to trade up a bit and then I'll look for a consolidation here at the all time high and then a roll over. For those that did the March week 1 covered call (good for you, it will expire worthless).
TSLA price from the first article: Up $37.26 [16.95%] much higher if you sold before earnings>
4. Duke Energy Corporation: DUK - Analysis on 2/24/17
Alright! Duke Energy is starting to move. Congrats to those who stuck with this one. Anyone who sold a meager put sale or bull put spread, you snagged a little gain from that beast for sure.
Utilities are starting to spike across the board for a few days, which could mean equities are slowing down and money will start pouring into the semi beat up, very safe, high dividend utility stocks.
I'm going to cheat here a little bit. I'm going to post a picture of my analysis on DUK from the first Winter Portfolio back in late December and just post that picture below.
And then, here is a recent chart of DUK below.
That's some silky smooth analysis on DUK. Great job team!! So, what to do from here? Hold I guess in to these nice resistance levels of $84-$86. If you can get some covered call premiums there, go for it. If you want to hold for another 80 years, rock on. If you simply bought in to snag a decent 3-4 month ROI, gorgeous. You nailed it. Wonderful job.
DUK price from the first article: Up $4.93 [6.4%]
5. CostCo Wholesale Corporation: COST - Analysis on 2/24/17
Well, I think it's official. COST is about to go on an epic 2-3 year run. And I'm serious when I say that. Wow, what a pricey stock this one is too.
Earnings on COST are on March 2nd. I think there's a 1% chance that COST can open lower than $165. I personally don't have the capital to do this trade in addition to all the others I want to be in, but perhaps you do. And the sad part is, there's not even a lot of premium on COST for this trade. But a March $165 or April $160 put sale both look glorious. Why? I personally think COST just broke out of a multi-year distribution phase, in a BIG way. I also have an oldie, but a goodie, regarding how this gap could impact COST. It's about gaps out of distribution phases. Check it out.
Here is COST on the weekly with some fun fibs too:
And here is COST on the daily with a possible wave count:
If COST gaps down small on earnings, I think it's very buyable. I would love COST to pull back some. Longer term calls or shares look really juicy on this stock. I'll be keeping a close eye on this earnings gap next week, but I don't anticipate anything to change my perspective on COST. If it does, I'll be sure to let you know.
COST price from the first article: Up $16.55 [10.27%]
Phew. That's a lot of content. Thank you so much for reading it. Truly means a lot to me. If you have any questions about any of the stocks above, trades, analysis, short term perspective, long term perspectives, you can always email me! firstname.lastname@example.org OR you can simply post your comments below.
I am so jazzed up! I mean, we totally crushed the Winter portfolio. Was it luck, or skill? Mostly luck honestly. I don't think you should judge me from this portfolio alone. I truly think the Trump and Santa Rally caused just about every stock out there to move in a big way.
I mean, we did pretty well in last years Winter portfolio too. Usually Nov - Feb is a great time of the year for swing traders and day traders. I've often found them to be my most profitable months as a trader.
So, how did we do? Seems like we stacked up a 56.15% gain on some of the most well known, salt of the earth stocks possible, in less than 3 months. Just showing you, that you don't need to trade penny stocks to have incredible returns. That markets are often all about timing!
Now, of course, the portfolios are never intended to be 'blind buy nowâ€ alerts. However, make sure you read each one, very carefully. Follow the stocks, plan out the trades, and be patient. Sometimes I'll follow a stock that I know is going bearish, but we can make money on the down moves too right? Either way - just be aware that we are doing our best to change the industry standard on education. From Maine to Manilla, Real Life Trading is Enriching Lives and we will continue to do so. Tell everyone you can about us and let's continue impacting the world in a positive way, through means of financial literacy.
Until next time, remember, Love Life, Live Life, and Trade it!
Jerremy Alexander Newsome
CEO and guy with the weakest chest at Real Life Trading