Real Life Trading Winter Portfolio 2017: Second Edition
Real Life Trading Winter Portfolio 2017: Second Edition
Hey Real Life Traders! How are you doing?! I know, it's been what seems like centuries since the last time we've chatted through the Winter Portfolio, but alas, it's only been a tad over a month.
A lot has happened in that month, for sure. I had the privilege of visiting some traders in Panama City, FL, then took a 2 week trip to Hawaii, and then spent a few days in the Lake Tahoe / Sacramento, CA area for a few days. I really just got back here to Nashville, TN. I'll be here for a few more days until we head out to Aruba for two weeks.
Who is 'weâ€? Well, I finally convinced my girlfriend Ashley to quit her job and trade full time with me, while helping Real Life Trading enrich lives. She is super excited and totally amped to interact with traders and help them along their journey.
February is 'Friends Monthâ€ at Real Life Trading and March will be Kids Month. March is also the start of Spring. So, look forward to a Real Life Trading March Madness bracket of some kind (for those into college basketball) along with many exciting webinars directed just for kids and also the culmination of the Winter Portfolio and the start of the Spring Portfolio.
Wow! So many things going on?! And all for free?!? Is this Real Life. Well, you know, it really is.
Alright, let's jump into some of these stocks. If you need a recap or refresher, here is edition one of the Winter Portfolio.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF: SPY - Analysis on 2/8/17
It's hard to trade the stock market without looking at the SPY every so often. It is literally one of the top two most traded instruments in the equities and options market. It's a great way to actually trade the S&P500, without specifically trading or focusing on futures.
The strategies I often find myself exploring the most on the SPY are long term trades (IRA / 401k focused type of investments. The always fun, yes boring, buy low and sell high type. I do talk a little bit about SPY long term in this video, starting around minute 11:17.
Then of course, I often plan for the exact opposite. I'm either planning to day trade weekly options on the SPY or be in the an options trade for a few days.
And right in the middle, I'll look for spreads of some kind. The SPY has been, and still is, quite bullish on the primary trend. It's bullish to neutral on both the intermediate and short term levels in my opinion. So, right now, many are looking at bull put spreads and/or put sales.
Below is my current daily chart on the SPY. The 50 exponential moving average is currently at $225.39. If and when SPY drops down to that level, it would likely prove to be a great buying point. Many have been selling puts and bull put spreads on the SPY as it has slowly been tracking higher since our last article on it. What could be a trade from here? Well, if you aren't already in something bullish, one could easily consider the 224 / 225 bull put spread expiring March week 1.
If you are in shares of the SPY, perhaps a March 233 covered call would suffice. Either way, I'm bullish on the SPY and planning to buy dips, rather than the breakouts. Just something to keep in mind.
SPY price from the first article: Up $4.84 [2.1%]
2. APPLE INC: AAPL - Analysis on 2/8/17
I've had a wager with a few Real Life Traders for quite a while. I've been mentioning that my yearly target on AAPL was $150. This chartkind of shows those thoughts about 8 months ago.
As you likely know, AAPL has been on a tear the last few weeks! Earnings was very strong, AAPL is hoarding around 240 billion in cash and it's re-approaching its all time highs. Since back on the 17th of January, we've been mentioning in our afternoon trading room the strength and confirmation of AAPL'S bullish move. In fact, here's a clip of that video.
I simply like backing up my claims of analysis. Here at Real Life Trading we keep it simple, we keep it realistic, and we keep it honest.
Alright, so after all of that analysis what now on AAPL? Well, the challenge from here is, if you aren't in bullish, you are probably chasing it. Sure, AAPL probably has some slight bullishness left in it. My personal target for the March $120 calls is $132.86. We are very close to that price. Here's kind of my personal take on AAPL in the next few days / weeks.
At this point, AAPL is pretty extended. Myself and others are just waiting for a pull back, for an opportunity to the buy the bounce. But, AAPL has moved almost 40% since June of 2016. Meaning, this tech giant has moved fast and far already! Both the daily charts and the weekly charts have numerous white candles in a row. Bottom line, many traders who have shares are doing covered calls up here. Some bear call spreads could be appropriate too. I'm excited to see where AAPL goes from here (likely higher over the next few months after some consolidation and rest.)
AAPL price from the first article: Up $15.28 [13.08%]
3. TESLA Motors: TSLA - Analysis on 2/8/17
Wow. I'm almost speechless on this stock! Many of my good friends and traders put a whooping on this stock (Stan, Niels, Justin, Troy and numerous others. TSLA had a glorious double bottom on the daily chart as we mentioned in our last article). I also drew the retracement levels and stated TSLA would hit one of those before continuing higher. Turns out, it was the red line.
I also have had an interesting wager on TSLA for the last month or so. I stated 'I will eat an entire unpeeled banana if TSLA drops below $210.96 before earnings.â€ Well, it turns out that hasn't happen (at least as of yet) and I doubt it will.
TSLA has just been crushing life right now, heading into earnings. It's next stop? I guess $280 really. Earnings will be the key indicator of that, but very similar to AAPL, if you aren't already on this train, you likely missed it. Sure, short term, there are still some day trading and quick swing trading opportunities. The edge is bullish no question, but the steam is running out.
Below is my chart on TSLA. Yes, there are some additional bullish opportunities on it. Simply be quick about them.
TSLA price from the first article: Up $42.32 [19.26%]
4. Duke Energy Corporation: DUK - Analysis on 2/8/17
Yawn. Haha. Well, we figured that would be the case with this solid blue chip utility, energy stock. I can say however, it is doing exactly what we planned and anticipated it to do. I didn't change the blue line at all, from our last analysis.
Today, volume is picking up nicely on DUK. It also made a higher high from the last few week.
Either way, we discussed the $72.50 put sale for either Jan or Feb on DUK. The Jan would have expired perfectly fine. Feb, shouldn't prove to be any issues at all. Just expecting a slow, bullish burn higher from here on DUK. Nothing to write home about, but another winner none the less.
DUK price from the first article: Up $1.61 [2.09%]
5. CostCo Wholesale Corporation: COST - Analysis on 2/8/17
Sorry to ring a very similar bell, however COST is also at a rock solid resistance. Now, aggressive option traders could look to play the counter trend bearish put play, expecting the quick retest on AAPL or TSLA or COST.
For this type of set up, COST seems like the more likely scenario to play bearish, however I just urge to use caution if playing anything bearish right now in this market. Unless of course one of the stock gaps nicely, many of them are just a 'wait and see' right now.
Here's the deal and chart on COST. It had a nice bullish move. Some Real Life Traders like Robert, Niels, Adrian and others benefited from the bullish move. Below is my chart on it.
From here, I truly don't know what to expect. With earnings, COST could either gap up large or gap down. If COST can really break through it's strong bullish resistance at $168.79, this retail giant is going to go gangbusters. I would truly love to see one more wave rotation down, back into the $144.00 price before another bullish pop. Either way, between now and then I'll be expecting for COST to break out bullish and then I'll wait to potentially buy the dip and retest of the $168 resistance from that point. Especially since the gap on the daily chart from 2/2/17 is so bullish.
COST price from the first article: Up $7.41 [4.6%]
Yeah, apologies. We totally crushed the Winter portfolio. Was it luck, or skill? Mostly luck I feel like since the Trump and Santa Rally caused just about everything to totally dominate. As a accumulative total, we racked up a 41.13% gain on these 5 solid blue chip stocks, in only 5 weeks?! Yep, this is Real Life.
Now, keep in mind, the portfolios are not intended to be simple blind buy orders. I often suggest being well versed and comfortable in many approaches and strategies. Shares, options, bullish trades, bearish trades, short term, and long term. The objective of course is to follow 5 stocks and companies and determine if the analysis is bullish or bearish and take it from there. It just so happens that the Winter Portfolio has produced one of the best monthly results we've seen thus far. That's just counting the bullish perspective though!
As you know, my goal and mission is To Enrich Lives. Think of the portfolio as a guide and play book to help traders from around the world navigate which stocks to follow, which prices to keep in mind and why.
Either way, know that you are awesome and Real Life Trading is constantly working towards changing the industry!
Thank you for reading! Please let me know if you have any questions or if there's anyway you wish to gain my assistance.
You totally rock!
~ Jerremy Alexander Newsome
The dude who loves to wear flip flops and
CEO of Real Life Trading