Real Life Trading Summer Portfolio 2018: Second Edition
Hello my kind and fair friends. I trust the world around you is spinning in a splendid fashion. Did you know you are moving about 1,000 miles per hour throughout the cosmos?!
It's always a good reminder. Also, I read a fun quote recently. It went like this '"If you want something you have never had, you will have to do something you have never done.' Lou Cassara
There are tons of things that I want, which I never have had before. Which tells me, there are still countless activities I need to do and millions of lives I must enrich first! Let's keep at it, together. I'm at 5.91R for August, right now at least. Mostly thanks to that AAPL gap over earnings, which I will certainly be covering in this portfolio.
One last thing before we dive in. Keep in mind that August is Volunteer Month at Real Life Trading. Ashley and I just got back from spending time with an incredible group of people. It's always an honor to give back to others and pour happiness into their lives.
Alright! It's stock analysin' time!
Stock #1 Deluxe Corporation Ticker: DLX - Analysis on August 4th, 2018Last month when I was covering this bad boy, the earnings had yet to be released. I mentioned the only trade that seemed reasonable was a $60 put sale. Which was this chart.What's super exciting about that analysis; that was about 10% ago on DLX! Good job not buying at $66 right? Now she's at 58.16. Anyone who did that put sale might get some shares put to them in 2 weeks.
Here's a snapshot of their earnings. On a per-share basis, the Shoreview, Minnesota-based company said it had profit of $1.25 per share. Earnings, adjusted for restructuring costs and non-recurring costs, were $1.40 per share. Deluxe expects full-year earnings in the range of $5.68 to $5.80 per share, with revenue ranging from $2.05 billion to $2.07 billion.
Deluxe shares have decreased 16 percent since the beginning of the year. The stock has declined 9.5 percent in the last 12 months.
Now, on a technical standpoint there are no moving averages (at least the ones I use) propping up DLX right now.
This is the daily chart.A tad different of a bullish trigger on the daily because of the 7/27 candle high.
That earnings candle looks pretty savage though. That was a day trade that was no where on my radar, but it would have been an easy ride if you pull up that 5 min chart.
Here is an aggressive play on the hourly. Remember, it's a dividend paying, blue chip stock at a 2+ year low. Expect some choppy-ness and accumulation down here, but rarely will we see anything exciting.
DLX price from the first edition: DOWN $7.8 (11.8%)
Stock #2 Thor Industries, Inc. Ticker: THO - Analysis on August 4th, 2018
In fact, just last night Ashley and I watched Thor: Ragnarok on NFLX. It was a movie, that's for sure. I'm badly behind on the Marvel films and franchise, but I do like how they have tons of comedy sprinkled into the films.
This stock obviously has nothing to do with the movie. HAHA. I simply figured I would bring it up. I actually like the analysis on THO a lot. I'm watching this super close as a double bottom on the daily chart.
It just so happens this dividend paying stock hero has also pulled back to a beautiful fib level and support range.Play it as you see fit, but dividends and earnings are behind us.
Keep in mind, the last analysis on THO, this one and this onewould have both had their profitable moments. The put sale still has 2 weeks before expiration, but it should be fine. And that set up on the hourly chart did make $3 per share or profit, so an aggressive trader would have either won small or lost small.Take two shall we?
THO price from the first edition: DOWN $1.89 (1.9%)
Stock #3 Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Ticker: PAG - Analysis on August 4th, 2018
PAG formed a super fun retest gap from earnings, back on 7/26. Here are some of those specific earnings numbers. Pretty dang solid!
Speaking of Thor, look at this hammer on PAG. Nooice!From here, I expect PAG to slowly creep higher. Eventually I expect this one to break out and that will be a lot of fun. But until then, stay bullish to neutral on this one. Especially with Friday's inside day candle, which is also a new while solider.
PAG price from the first edition: UP $1.89 (3.65%)
Stock #4 Apogee Enterprises, Inc Ticker: APOG - Analysis on August 4th, 2018
Well team, this retest gap did certainly retest. This was the exact set up I posted in the last write up.
I think it's safe to say she should bounce and there is no real reason for APOG to break down further. Therefore, it's time to inch that stop higher and get it below that 7/25 hammer.
Other than that, I don't see much transpiring on this particular stock. It's been pretty flat. One could absolutely consider some put sales or a bull put spread if you can find decent premium.
APOG price from the first edition: Down $.88 (1.7%)
Stock #5 Apple Inc Ticker: AAPL - Analysis on August 4th, 2018
And now, it's time for the big winner! Wow! AAPL, the stock and company I'm always bullish on. I've been telling people to buy into this stock and company since I was 7! HAHA. But if you've been apart of Real Life Trading for the last 4 years, it's been gorgeous one to hold. I mean, they make money. A LOT of money. Their earnings were incredible, again.
My buddy Uberto bought an AAPL leap back in January and he sold it Thursday for 30R's! Another Real Life Trader named Victor sold his call for 18R's!
The big news of course is, AAPL is the first $1,000,000,000,000 company. Yep. The four comma club. Congrats to those who own shares long term of this bad boy. It's obviously the top help stock for those at Real Life Trading.
Look at that amazing bullish gap and go! At this point, the question of 2018 ( and the next few years will be, 'how high will AAPL go?'
Here are some of my answers.
Now obviously AAPL isn't just going to run straight up into these targets. We certainly will get some wave rotations. Something like this.
Since I have yet been able to foretell the future perfectly, make sure to trade your plan on AAPL and find your specific time frame. But if the question is 'are you still bullish on AAPL?' my answer is, yes. For now. There will be a time where 'I'll call the top' on AAPL and it likely will coincide with a general market pullback, which I still think is a late 2019, early 2020 time frame. All I know for sure is, one candle can change everything, including your life. So, until we get that volume and candle of which I can decipher the proper sentiment, let's continue being bullish on the worlds largest and most profitable company.
However, between now and 2020, we will have tons of set ups on AAPL. Especially shorter term, like this one.
AAPL price from the first edition: UP $20.02 (10.65%)
Thank you so much for being with me and spending your time reading this article. I hope you truly enjoyed it, found value and of course feel enriched!
Until we connect again, remember to Love Life, Live Life and Trade it!
Jerremy Alexander Newsome
CEO of Real Life Trading and best buddies with Blake Anderson