Real Life Trading Fall Portfolio 2017: Second Edition
Real Life Trading Fall Portfolio 2017: Second Edition
Hello you gorgeous and beautiful traders from around the world! I trust you are doing majestic and terrific.
Boy oh boy, I love this time of year. The weather is cooling off here in Nashville, the leaves are changing colors, the World Series is on, sports are in high gear, earnings season is causing some giants in the industry to just surge…overall, fun times!
As you now know, November is â€˜Nom de Plumeâ€™ month, where the challenge is to write something new. But I want you to think big! When I say write something, it could be your autobiography! I have chatted with people about this before and they say â€œoh, Iâ€™m not that interesting.â€ Well, it doesnâ€™t have to become a best seller. Perhaps your kids, their kids and so on would love to read about the amazing trader who came before them?
Or you can finally create that trading plan youâ€™ve been putting off for weeks. Or you could do what Justin Linderman did and write a stock pun book!
All Iâ€™m saying is, if you need suggestions, I can help you!
And thatâ€™s another reason you are here, Iâ€™m sure. I am about to lay down some suggestions that could improve your families financial outlook as well. Letâ€™s get started!
This list of 5 stocks collectively has been doing quite well during this Autumn season. Iâ€™m really happy to look over them with you and chat it up!
Logmein- Ticker LOGM: Analysis on November 1st 2017
Was that you selling and taking profit on the earnings gap back on October 27th? I mean, look at that move, wow! Back from last month, our analysis and plan was â€œIf LOGM closes above $112.96, I think she slowly keeps climbing higher. This one could be solid for a bull put spread $105 and below.â€œ
Well, it closed above $112.96 back on October 3rd and did what I thought. Slowly climbed higher. It just made new all time highs and with dividends around the corner (another bonus) this looks to be an easy #buythedip opportunity. If you did a bull put spread, as listed above, you also squeaked out a gain with that approach as well. All around, winner, winner, chicken dinner on LOGM.
In the below 2 charts, youâ€™ll see what I think occurs from here. Trend = bullish approach, look to buy the dip.
I really like todayâ€™s candle. Itâ€™s a nice new white solider candle and it certainly shows some strength.
LOGM price from the first article: Up $12.54 (11.28%)
2. Web.com Group - Ticker WEB: Analysis on November 1st 2017
With earnings coming right around the corner, WEB is still battling that strong resistance of $25.49 I mentioned in the last article. We as traders are still waiting for a break above that resistance. If you were already in shares, Iâ€™m sure you probably sold some covered calls and collected your premiums as this puppy has done nothing more than trade sideways for a bit.
Below is my chart and analysis for earnings. If WEB doesnâ€™t break below $23.50 before earnings and then gaps down into that red box, I would be pretty bearish for a day trade, or swing trade as it moves into a buy low, sell high opportunity. If WEB gaps up into the green box and clears that strong $25.50 resistance, this ice cream cone of profits will be handed to us by a golden eagle.
And if WEB has a bigger gap and opens somewhere in this bottom green zone, I would expect a few bulls to see it as a good buying opportunity and we could look to buy the longer term support level!
WEB price from the first article: Down $1.00 (5%)
3. Apple Inc. - Ticker AAPL : Analysis on November 1st 2017
Wow! AAPL! What a brilliant show this cookie (uhh, I mean fruit) has put on for us in recent weeks. My wave count and structure certainly wasnâ€™t perfect on this one, but that 9/29 candle was the game changer.
You might remember I wanted roll over and a bounce. In fact, here is my chart on it from the last portfolio.
The above chart tells the story of sentiment from the candle on 9/29. It is the candle that I wanted and knew AAPL would create. I simply thought it would be down in the $148 area. But, nope. What happened on that candle?
Well, volume increased, gorgeous lower shadow and a shaved top? After the previous 3 candles formed a kind of ugly evening start reversal. People likely expected AAPL to roll over a bit more (myself included) but that sentiment and notion was negated after the above hammer came in. Now, I did use the low of that candle to solidify my bearish thoughts. I said many times â€œif AAPL closes below the low of 9/29 candle, this stock will go lowerâ€ and thatâ€™s where I placed the unravel contingency for my bull put spread. It got close, but never broke lower.
And there were a FEW traders who took advantage of AAPL after that move.Hereâ€™s just a couple testimonies of how weâ€™ve been crushing this one.
Now, I know this is a lot of analysis on AAPL. But, itâ€™s the biggest company in the world and one that has helped many Real Life Traders create some substantial wealth over the last few weeks (and years).
So, below is my chart on earnings.
This is what I think AAPL will do personally. AAPL probably gaps down or doesnâ€™t gap at all. Nothing is overall exciting, people stop losing their minds and AAPL slowly and quietly creeps into the night into the mid $170â€™s before the end of the year.
Now of course, if AAPL keeps this consolidation and bearish candles into earnings and gaps up into the green zone, sheâ€™s gone. Good buy. WE will see $200 in early Q1 of 2018 and that would be huge for many.
Everyone is really excited about this move (including myself). The best way to trade this one is plan for the future, create and tell AAPL what you want it to do and act upon the move if it does what you asked.
If, of course, AAPL gaps down 3-4% into the red zones, I would expect AAPL to slightly sell off very lightly (the pink lines) but eventually get bought up. Why? Well, AAPL is going to show over 50 billion in revenue on this earnings. Any company that makes that kind of moolah goes higher over time. Pretty simple.
AAPL price from the first article: Up $15.00 (9.87%)
4. Redfin Corporation - Ticker: RDFN Analysis on November 1st 2017
What a wild and weird ride this stock has been. Granted, itâ€™s brand new on the scene and we do not have tons of financial data for it yet. This trade was our loser, regarding our set up from last portoflio. But thankfully, we had our stop in place and moved on!
Iâ€™m not super confident in what RDFN will be doing from here. What I can say is, it looks like it broke out of a weird triangle pattern, as you can see below.
But, I can also draw a channel type of play as well. This one is a semi fun stock to trade and eventually, I think RDFN surges higher with the other tech applications out there. Itâ€™s one to keep our eyes on but certainly buy and hold at this point. Iâ€™ll let you know if and when that time comes.
For now, my best analysis as what to do going forward, looks a lot like this.
What I can say for sure is, I will not be holding this one over earnings. I do plan to pour over some numbers and see whatâ€™s what. Could RDFN continue lower? YEP! But, a strong gap out of here or any solid fundamentals and I could see this stock in the low 30â€™s again by early Feb.
RDFN price from the first article: Down $4.69 (16.76%)
5. ETSY Inc. - Ticker: ETSY Analysis on November 1st 2017
So far, ETSY has completed a beautiful retest. The exact one I was looking for and pulled perfectly into the 100 SMA. Here was our last chart from the first portfolio.
Personally, I am sure Iâ€™ll be dropping a few Râ€™s in gifts through ETSY this season. What I can also say is, the news that AMAZON has created a â€˜hand made giftâ€™ section on itâ€™s site didnâ€™t have as huge of an impact as I thought it might.
Either way, itâ€™s a tad of a risky play, because retail has simply gotten crushed over the last few months really, thanks to AMZN. However, this wave rotation is undeniable on ETSY.
I mean, look at that high wave candle on ETSY on the daily. The October 23rd candle. That was the â€˜big news dayâ€™ about AMZN and the following inside day candle was brilliant. That sentiment truly says â€œI donâ€™t know whatâ€™s about to happen.â€
Below is my earnings chart and analysis. As long as ETSY doesnâ€™t gap down below $14.75, it should be okay. A gap below that price and ETSY will sink lower. Therefore, if you plan on holding longer term, you could at least consider some Nov $15 puts on ETSY as protection over earnings. Because if this stock has even remotely good earnings or a strong outlook into the next few months, I think a gap up could be a fun and solid ride for ETSY.
ETSY price from the first article: Down .38 (2.2%)
Well my friends, fans and followers, that about does it for me. This time next week, I am headed back to Vegas with some friends to pour some money into that city and celebrate a close friendsâ€™ birthday along with Real Life Tradingâ€™s 3rd birthday, which occurs on November 5th! YEAH!!!
And then, it will be off to Iceland over the Thanksgiving week. The Real Life Trading morning and afternoon rooms will be closed from Nov 20th - Nov 24th.
Keep an eye out to receive the Third Edition of this portfolio sometime in late Nov, early Dec.
THANK YOU so much for reading. Feel free to share this with friends, family, co-workers. The mission of Real Life Trading is To Enrich Lives!
Jerremy Alexander Newsome
CEO of Real Life Trading and co-host of IR4 podcast.