Real Life Trading Fall Portfolio 2016: Third Edition
Real Life Trading Fall Portfolio 2016: Third Edition Hello my beautiful friends, Real Life Traders and stock market fans from all over the world! I hope this article finds you in a most excited and generous state of mind! Presently it is December 2016 and we are enjoying 'Declutter Month' here at Real Life Trading. Here in Nashville, TN it's been getting cold and dark insanely early, like 5:00 p.m. its almost pitch black, which means Winter is upon us! So starting in January, we will have the Real Life Trading Winter Portfolio. Exciting times! What are your plans for the upcoming holiday season? Are you traveling anywhere? Ashley and I will be heading down to spend time with her parents in Panama City, FL and then I'll head out to Hawaii for a few weeks and then Aruba in February. I'll be keeping you posted between now and then for sure! Alright, lets hop into some trading chatter! #1 Micron Technology: MU - Analysis on 12/3/16 I know numerous incredible Real Life Traders have been following this stock lately like Jesse, Robert, Chris, Laurie… This is and has been a fun stock to watch and trade. Our previous analysis on MU was rock solid. Wave 4 has ended and wave 5 took off like a rocket. The December $15 put sale is still looking pretty decent! It's only 2 weeks until that put option expires worthless and we lock in gains or MU closes below $15 on December 16th and we get put the stock and then we could turn around and sell covered calls. I am pretty confident, though, that it will expire worthless. :-) 📷 What now? Well, the $18 price was a great previous resistance and perhaps now it should hold as a nice support. At some point I'm pretty excited to see if MU will bounce off of the 100 SMA. Earnings kick off on the 21st of December. I am excited to see how MU gaps on earnings, but as long as it doesn't gap down and open below $16.00 I'll remain bullish on the trend overall. As of today, I'll be watching MU very closely for a bullish bounce and a continuation higher on this company.
MU price from the first article: Up $.98 [5.5%]
#2 LINE Corporation: LN - Analysis on 12/3/16
Man, this was a really fun quick bounce on LN a few days ago, back on the 15th of November. That's exactly what we planned and wanted LN to do. Here was the analysis. 'My guess from here? It's probably going to stay in this short term down trend until it reaches support. I am of course not saying for sure LN will bounce off of $36.76; however, I can say it has before and I'll most certainly be keeping an eye on it to bounce there. Simply, buy low, sell high and mitigate my risk! That's all we as traders can do. Create a plan and follow that plan.â€
The objective from here? Rinse and repeat. I will watch for LN again to trade back down to that exact $36 dollar area and bounce off of that support. This could be good for a swing trade, day trade or longer term trade, even. LN is a mover. Wow! This stock is very volatile, which means it's really fun to trade actively for sure.
I massively doubt LN bounces exactly off of $36.76 again… more than likely LN will move a tad lower with a lower wick potentially. Let's watch it again, my friends, and of course, if LN really crushes below that support I'll keep an eye to trade it bearish!
LN price from the first article: Down $9.48 [19.8%]
#3 First Majestic Silver Corp: AG - Analysis on 12/3/16
Good ol' First Majestic Silver. Love this stock and company. I had a Real Life Trader, Syeda, reach out to me about a week ago asking 'How long do you think I should hold onto this stock?'
She got in not too long ago. My reply was simply 'It's all about how long you want to be in the trade. I don't specifically think AG is a 2-3 week swing trade, but more likely a 2-4 month swing trade. I still love the area and price area that AG is trading into. The most recent candle, back on the 2nd of December, is a gorgeous bullish signal. The stock made a higher high, volume increased and there was a nice gap.
My thoughts from here are simple and remain the same as the first article. I love this area for a bounce. Between December 1st and December 2nd, it was a nice retest gap. I'll be looking for the stock to pull back at some point early next week.
Of course, there is a chance that if you watch AG on the hourly chart, this current move could turn into a quick bullish trade. The chart below is that set up.
I love the doji candle that occurred on November 25th. Since then AG has had a nice rally. Of course, this stock's performance will always have something to do with silver's movement. If silver rallies nicely, AG could be a nice trade!
AG price from the first article: Up $1.59 [18.08%]
#4 Bristol Myers Squibb: BMY - Analysis on 12/3/16
Well shoot. BMY never quite made it down to the $47.47 support. I was really looking forward to going bullish on BMY at that point. However, the good news is many Real Life Traders were still able to take advantage of the bullish move on BMY, since its perfect bullish gap and go on October 27th.
It was actually kind of comical. In the last write up on BMY I was personally shocked that a bullish move hadn't continued after the gap and I was looking for a bearish play. Well, that following Monday, BMY was gapping up slightly in the morning on November 4th, closed with a nice one white soldier candle and then another gap after that. I even did a write up for it on the weekly options newsletter looking to buy some call options. Unfortunately, my limit order on those calls never filled and after Donald Trump won the election BMY went gang busters, gapping up hugely on November 9th.
On a weekly chart for BMY, it's hanging out right on the 200 SMA. These last few weeks could be a flag pattern and I would love to see a higher high for BMY to likely keep popping bullish.
My thoughts for approaching BMY going forward remain the same as they were on the first write up. This is a solid blue chip stock and it was trading at a massive discount. However, if BMY closes below $54.90 (the low of the November 9th candle) I think we will get one more opportunity at a cheaper price to potentially buy BMY on a longer term time frame.
BMY price from the first article: Up $.53 [1%]
#5 Apple Inc: AAPL - Analysis on 12/3/16
As you know, for anyone who had shares of AAPL who did the $130 November covered call over earnings, that one expired perfectly well. And many other traders have profitably traded AAPL pretty recently. Brandon, Niels and Ford had put sales and spreads expire worthless recently, too. Edna and many others are in some shares and I still remain bullish on AAPL as well.
It still appears AAPL is in some kind of wave 4 action. The last two weeks the 100 SMA on a weekly chart at $112.09 has proven to be a pretty strong resistance.
On the daily chart, you'll notice AAPL bounced perfectly off of the 200 SMA back on the 14th of November. It seems there's a really good chance AAPL could be forming a smallish inverted head and shoulders. I'll be watching it very closely this upcoming week because AAPL is at a crucial location. I personally am planning for it either to bounce bullish Monday, or if it rocks bearish a bit, AAPL likely would trade down to approximately the $105 area where I would look to be bullish of course.
Watch this one closely this upcoming week. I've diagrammed the two things that I anticipate AAPL to do. A close above $113 before 2017 would be a solid bullish indication to me! Let's see what happens!
AAPL price from the first article: Down $4.18 [3.6%]
Thank you so much for reading! Have an amazing, safe, fun, generous and enjoyable holiday season! I really appreciate your support. If you ever have any questions about trading, or deem there is anyway I can assist, please let me know! My email is firstname.lastname@example.org Chat with you soon! Until next time, remember, love life, live life and trade it!
Jerremy Alexander Newsome
CEO of Real Life Trading